Some Good News From John Glen MP.

We've just heard from John Glen MP that he has secured a 90 minute debate on the A303 on March 4th from 2.30 to 4pm.

It will be worth tuning in to the debate on TV/radio (We assume it will be broadcast) to hear the arguments for and, more importantly, to get the feel for any arguments against something happening at all, or quickly.

Please send any thoughts you have on the issue, thanks, etc.,  to John Glen directly at john.glen.mp@parliament.uk 

LHVs and What They Might Mean for the A303 and the West of England

LHVs - Longer, Heavier Vehicles - have been back in the news again this week, with an interesting story in the Western Gazette of Friday 21st February 2014 with the suitably emotive title of "A303 DUAL IT: New Laws Could See Monster Trucks Wreak Havoc on the A303".

The article begins: "...Mega trucks measuring up to 82ft in length could be allowed into Britain under new EU laws. Draft legislation being considered by the European Parliament would permit lorries longer than two double decker buses, and weighing up to 60 tonnes, to cross international borders for the first time..."

We thought we'd better take a look, and then take a position on this story.  Clearly, the A303 as it stands, is already unsuitable for the types of HGV loads already being carried - especially on the single-carriageway sections which despite Highways Agency bleatings, are too narrow to accommodate the current generation of HGVs.  Roundabouts on the A303 regularly have HGVs overturning on them because they fail to negotiate them at speed.

So, what is the truth about these Mega trucks?  We all know the danger of relying on newspapers of accurate information - on just about anything - so we went back to try and find the origins of this story from some more reputable sources.  We found two interesting reports.  The first "Longer and/or Longer and Heavier Goods Vehicles (LHVs) – a Study of the Likely Effects if Permitted in the UK: Final Report" written by the UK's Transport Research Labs in 2008:

This makes clear that this whole story is nothing new.  In fact, two UK companies pressed to be allowed to trial LFVs in the UK as long ago as 2005, but were refused.  As interest in LFVs was growing in the UK and elsewhere in Europe, the DfT commissioned TRL and Herriott-Watt University.  It's a very long report, but if you are interested, it is well worth reading the Executive Summary and the précis of the findings.  As might be expected, the findings are bit of a curates egg, but overall, it seems to come out in favour - but there were problems anticipated by both the length and the weight of these vehicles.

One interesting finding is reproduced here:

"...If LHVs were to be permitted then European legislation would be very likely to substantially constrain the UKs ability to permit only those specific types of LHV with characteristics considered desirable to protect the UK infrastructure. The current European legislation would also be likely to make it difficult to require the fitting of specific additional safety equipment that could mitigate any increased accident risks. Suitable amendments to the European legislation would be required to be certain of the outcome. The UK regulations on speed limits for multi-trailer combinations would also be likely to require amendment, even if such vehicles were to be permitted by Special Order, because their speed would otherwise be limited to 40 mile/h on motorways and 20 mile/h on all other roads..."

Reading between the lines, we think this is really an admission of it being a case of when it happens and not if it happens.

Another concern was that introducing LFVs might precipitate a shift of freight traffic from rail to road.  Given the loss of the main rail link to the West Country in recent weeks, the pressure to provide a credible alternative can only grow.

The second paper, written for the European Commission in 2009, "Longer and Heavier Vehicles for Freight Transport" is also of interest to us as it begins:

"The European Commission is considering the implications of allowing the use of Longer and Heavier Vehicles a for road freight transport (abbreviated as LHVs in this study), measuring up to 25.25 m and weighing up to 60 tons, for the whole of the European Union transport system. Such trucks are already in circulation in Finland and Sweden, while several Member States are considering their introduction".

So, as we suspected, the Western Gazette is hyping this aspect of their story a wee bit; this is far from a new plan and the EU have been considering it for at least 5 years.  As far as the plan to use them, eventually, in the UK as a whole, it really shouldn't be a surprise.

However, where we would agree with the Western Gazette is in the likely impact on the A303/A358/A30 corridor.  It would be an unmitigated disaster with, we suspect, some dire consequences in terms of lives lost and blighted by accident - all the evidence suggests more accidents per km travelled than for existing HGVs.  They would be horrendous on any of the single carriageway sections of the A303 such as that past Stonehenge and through Winterbourne Stoke, but imagine them trying to negotiate the bends and steep climbs of the Blackdown Hills.

Lest anyone believe that no-one would even consider putting these things on West Country roads as they stand, then this diagram from the report should shatter that illusion:

See the little red dots in Cornwall!  Enough said.

So what is our position on LHVs?  Well, in the short term, even with the rail problems that the West Country now faces and is likely to face in the foreseeable future, we should be robust in keeping them off the A303, the A358 and the A30.  The risk to life and limb is simply too great.

In the longer term. the government has to look at an integrated traffic infrastructure plan for the west of England - providing a sustainable rail link to the tip of Cornwall as well as dualling the A303.  If this can be done, then there may be less of a need for LHV's - though we fear the economic and environmental case for doing so may be hard to overturn. 

Does The Flap Of A Butterfly's Wing in Brazil Cause Traffic Chaos in Shrewton?

I suppose I should apologise to Edward Lorenz, American mathematician, meteorologist and pioneer of chaos theory who, in 1961 published a ground-breaking paper with the somewhat esoteric title of "Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow."  If you are a) a mathematician, b) a meteorologist, or c) an insomniac, by all means read it.  Otherwise, read about it.

Basically, Lorenz's paper and Chaos Theory suggest that a small variation of the starting conditions at one point in a system can have a profound affect somewhere else.  He later reported: "One meteorologist remarked that if the theory were correct, one flap of a seagull's wings could change the course of weather forever."  Seagulls clearly aren't very attractive and 11 years later, the seagull had transformed into a butterfly - and chaos theory never looked back.

So why am I wittering on about all this?  Well, to show how little changes can have huge and, allegedly, unanticipated impacts elsewhere.  After the closure of the A344, Shrewton has seen an increase in traffic on the A360 and other roads into and out of the village; a problem, a nisance, but not life threatening.

A beat of the butterfly's wing in Brazil back at the end of December may well have resulted in a shift in the Jet Stream and the torrential downpours we have experienced ever since.  That in turn has led to a rise in the water table at Tilshead of over 20 metres since December;  not surprising then that the Shrewton to Tilshead road flooded and Wiltshire Council installed traffic lights to allow vehicles to pass safely through the floodwater.  A nuisance, a bit inconvenient, but not life threatening.

On Friday, a half-term weekend when holiday traffic was anticipated on the roads - not to mention those folks heading to Somerset, Deveon and Cornwall to check on flooded properties - there was a minor shunt west of Winterbourne Stoke.  The A303 westbound diversion sign was uncovered at Longbarrow Roundabout and poor motorists conned by a mixture of Highways Agency and Wiltshire Council ineptitude into "following the triangles" - a none-existent diversionary route that takes vehicles off the A303 and then abandons them.  Annoying to all involved, a delay, a right royal pain in the behind, but not life threatening.

But his is what happened on Friday last:

An ambulance on a blue-light run is stuck in heavy traffic in Shrewton - not trivial, not just annoying, but a potential life threatening situation.

Of course, fingers could be pointed at an unknown and unidentifiable butterfly flitting about in a Brazilian rain forest for all these events.  But how much more likely is it that at least some of them were precipitated by another small and completely avoidable event:  the decision to close the A344 without improving the A303 first.

Had the A303 been dualled, there may not have been a crash, the diversion need not have been instituted and the traffic lights, which had worked fine for several days previously, might not have been overwhelmed by the sheer volume of traffic trying to avoid the A303 and the ambulance on a blue light run, need not have been impeded.  A life need not have been put in jeopardy.

This also takes us back to Adam Smith, the 18th century Scottish philosopher, who came up with the concept of the law of unintended consequences - as popularised by the American social scientist, Robert K. Merton in his 1936 paper entitled: The Unanticipated Consequences of Purposive Social Action." (A little easier to read than Lorenz's paper).

 This examines the unforseen consequences of intentional human interventions.  So whilst the muppets who pressed for, agreed to and allowed the A344 to be closed before the A303 was dualled and those who had fought against dualling the A303 for years to protect Stonehenge might argue that a threat to life was an unforseen consequence of their actions, that claim would bear a little more scrutiny.

The impact of the closure of the A344 without dualling the A303 were widely predicted many years ago. The impact of not dualling the A303 were also predicted years ago. Westbound crashes on the A303 to the west of Winterbourne Stoke on Friday evenings are commonplace.  Diverting traffic off the A303 as a consequence of crashes is also commonplace. Heavy rain happens, very heavy rain and groundwater flooding happens rarely; but it does happen.  Ambulances on blue-light runs drive through Shrewton on the A360.  There is a real probability, however remote a probability that might be,  that all these events will align in time and space as they did last Friday.  This shows the difference between hard science (Lorenz) and softer social sciences (Merton).  Lorenz would have looked at probabilities and chaos theory, whilst followers of Merton fail to anticipate.  Hard science deals in rare, high impact events.  Soft science waffles a bit

So, an ambulance stuck in trafficin Shrewton last Friday is, perhaps, a consequence of a metaphorical butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil and all-too real butterfly brains in the UK not thinking about the predictable consequences of their decision.  Profound or what?

English Heritage Getting It Right At Stonehenge

After months of berating English Heritage for the closure of the A344,  the subsequent traffic misery in surrounding villages and on the A303 and much else besides, it is a real pleasure to be able to say something positive about them, and twice in one day.

Upon hearing that some modifications had been made to the entrance to the A344 subsequent to our meeting with English Heritage, STAG's trusty staff photographer, Snapper Dave, was dispatched to Stonehenge post-haste to collect the evidence.  So here we have it, a cut round the gate to allow pedestrians, cyclists and horse riders to continue along the A344 without let or hindrance.

OK, it isn't exactly pretty, it's actually a bit of a mess, but the inclement weather hasn't exactly helped and it was done at very short notice - and it is certainly no worse than any of the other byways in the area at the moment.  Of course, it is also something of a temporary "fix" as the Kent Carriage Gap - to allow carriages pulled by horses through - hasn't yet been installed.  But it is a real start and as such,  much appreciated by all potential users.

So a big and heartfelt thank you to English Heritage and specifically, to Kate Davies, Stonehenge's General Manager.  A positive step on the path to building confidence.

English Heritage - Some Hope For The Future?

On Thursday evening (06/02/2014) , STAG met with representatives of English Heritage in Shrewton.  The purpose of the meeting was twofold and in line with an earlier meeting we had held with the National Trust.  Firstly, we wanted to speak to English Heritage about the forthcoming A303 feasibility study and our desire, if possible, to cooperate with them, in an effort to achieve a result that benefited all.

Second, we pointed out that the closure of the A344, English Heritage's somewhat disingenuous attempts to blame Wiltshire Council for the closure, the subsequent traffic chaos on the A303, the A360 and a raft of other local roads, their failure to comply with specific conditions of the planning permission granted for the construction of the new visitor's centre (including their failure to allow unfettered access to the A344, 24/7 , for everything other than motorized vehicles) and some other minor niggles meant there was a feeling of distrust of English Heritage in the local community.  We also pointed out that this built on issues that had arisen from previous dealings with English Heritage on the A303 over a number of decades.

So, whilst we were being genuine in our desire to work with English Heritage in the future, there were some legacy issues that would need to be addressed before the local community could buy in to this engagement wholeheartedly.

Clearly, this was something of a mixed message and it would have been very easy for the meeting to have become overly acrimonious on our part, or for the English Heritage reps to simply walk away and refuse to engage. 

Neither of those things happened - which was a measure of success in itself.  We also got the feeling that English Heritage perhaps hadn't fully appreciated some of the issues that had so annoyed the local community.   We suggested some short term measures that might be considered as ways of alleviating the traffic problems in the area, on the A303 and on the local roads around Stonehenge, and English Heritage also suggested other ideas.  Collectively, all would be worth raising with other stakeholders like Wiltshire Council,  the Highways Agency and Parish Councils.

All in all, from the STAG perspective, a helpful first meeting.  I say first, because we hope it will not be the last - more meetings will be needed if much of the talk is to be translated into action. 

Perhaps actions speak louder than words?   We have heard just heard indirectly that changes have been made to the access to the A344 from the A360 and it now possible for pedestrians and cyclists to have unfettered access 24/7.  That might sound trivial, but it's a good start.  It is encouraging for the future and something on which we can build.

Wiltshire Council Claim English Heritage are Breaking the Law!

Oh dear, Oh dear, Oh dear!  Back at the end of the year we fired of an FOIA query to Wiltshire Council as we suspected that English Heritage were playing fast and loose with their authority - or abject lack of it - over the A344. 

Today, we got a very helpful and yet totally unexpected reply from them.  The first surprise was that the question was answered under the Environmental Information Regulations rather than FOIA - I need to look at that in more detail, there may be other ways we can use this legislation.  The second and far bigger surprise lay in the contents of the response.  Look at the bits in bold in particular:


Request for Information – reference RFI - ENQ00535-REQ001

Thank you for your request for information received 30 December 2013.  I
apologise for the delay in responding,

Section 39 of the Freedom of Information Act 2000 requires us to respond
to requests for information about the environment under different
legislation: the Environmental Information Regulations 2004, rather than
under the Freedom of Information Act.  The definition of “environment”
under this legislation is very wide.   I consider that the information you
have requested relates to the environment and must therefore be dealt with
under the Environmental Information Regulations 2004.

In response to your request officers have provided the following:

The attached draft document outlines the arrangements under which English
Heritage should manage access through the gates for all users exempt from
the TRO restrictions. The document was drafted by EH, confirming they are
fully au fait with the implications of the TRO.

It has been brought to the attention of Wiltshire Council that the road
has been unavailable for use by authorised users at certain times of the
day, principally when the Visitor Centre is closed. English Heritage have
been advised accordingly. A response from EH has, to date, not been
received.


All gates, when works are complete, will be supplemented with a Kent
Carriage Gap, which will allow all non-motorised users to pass and repass.
These have not yet been provided or completed at all gates, and some
temporary barriers appear to have been placed so as to obstruct lawful
use.


The Council has not withheld any information in relation to this request
under the exceptions of the Environmental Information Regulations 2004.

The document drafted by English Heritage, all ten pages of it can be found here.

Wow -what an admission.  If English Heritage are "obstructing lawful use", then it would seem to me that they were breaking the law.  When STAG were planning our demo back in December, we were left in no doubt, by Wiltshire Police, that if we were to obstruct the highway unreasonably by our actions, then we WOULD be arrested for obstruction.  It will be interesting to see if Wiltshire Police have (or will now) apply the same rigour to those responsible for this admitted breach of the law.

We also need to know if and when, knowing that an obstruction of lawful use had occurred, Wiltshire Council informed Wiltshire Police of this?  If they didn't why not,  Moreover, who knew and who decided not to inform the Police?  How many were involved?

It may not be straightforward as English Heritage seem to be acting as agents of Wiltshire Council in controlling access to the A344, so it might be Jane Scott, leader of Wiltshire Council, who might carry ultimate responsibility, but obstruction may just be the tip of the iceberg..

Another question needs to be asked about whether Wiltshire Police themselves might have been mislead by English Heritage on the 17th and 18th of December and subsequently.  What were they policing on those days?  What were their orders in relation to people wanting to walk, ride bikes or horses along the A344?   That's a question we will certainly be asking.

This all makes life very difficult indeed.  If English Heritage can't be trusted to adhere to the law,  how can they be trusted in any future dealings in relation to the A344 or Byway 12.  Moreover, how can they be trusted when it comes to future plans for the A303?  A public apology for their actions and an immediate removal of all obstructions would be a good start.

The Fragile Routes to the West of England - Wessex Sub Aqueanus

Over the last month, we have seen the fragility of the transport infrastructure through Wessex.  First we had the closure of the A303 in Somerset A303 between the Podimore and Cartgate Roundabouts on Christmas Eve when the River Yeo burst its banks.

Then we had a second closure of the A303, at the Deptford Junction with the A36, caused by rising groundwater levels on the western edge of Salisbury Plain.  Even after the initial flood subsided a wee bit, we still had a contraflow working for some time as it took some time for all carriageways and the slip roads to clear.  Even this week, the A303 westbound has been closed at night to allow the damage caused by the flooding to be repaired.

The rain has continued at a lower intensity for the last couple of weeks, and the A303 seems to be safe for the moment.  That said, groundwater levels haven't dropped at all on Salisbury Plain, even though the levels in the River Till, through Winterbourne Stoke have dropped around 5-10 cm.  Today, the Tilshead borehole levels look like this:

Of course, yesterday, we had yet more rain and storm surges throughout the Wessex region.  We had 14.7mm here in Winterbourne Stoke, but that was trivial compared to levels further West.  The Somerset Levels,  already suffering for over a month from the floods, exacerbated by the abject failure of the Environment Agency to effectively dredge blocked water channels, has water levels rising yet again.  King Canute couldn't hold back the water and sadly, it seems, neither can Prince Charles - but at least he took the time to go, showed REAL understanding of the issues and concerned for those he met.

The rain and the spring tides and high winds wrought damage further west in Dawlish, tearing out the ballast under the main line from Exeter to Penzance, ripping out the adjacent road and threatening houses and businesses.

This morning on  TV,  a Network Rail spokesman was suggesting that it might take 6 weeks and tens of millions of pounds, if not one to two hundred million pounds,  to put right the damage caused in an hour of nature at its most furious.  And still more rain and high winds are predicted in the coming days - with rain levels on high ground predicted to be up to 20-40mm per day - higher than anything we have seen this winter by a good margin.

This all raises a number of very important questions for the Wessex transport infrastucture.  We have lost the major rail line for a number of weeks - assuming there is no further damage.  Passengers and freight are going to have to transfer to the roads - the A303 and the M4/M5 further north.  With the additional predicted rain, there seems to be a possibility that further flooding of the A303 might occur this weekend or early next week - pushing all that traffic on to the northern route.  

Engineers talk of a "single point of failure" (SPOF!), which is the part of a system, that if it fails, will cause the rest of the system to fail.  With multiple means of transport through Wessex, there was no SPOF, but it is possible that within hours or days, there will only be one point in the transport infrastructure left and only one to fail - the M4/M5 corridor.  A single minor incident on the motorway could stop traffic in any numbers getting through Wiltshire/Avon and in to Devon and Cornwall. Diversionary routes south through the Somerset levels are simply not viable.

I hope politicians locally and nationally are looking at this and thinking of the consequences.  In our campaign to improve the A303 west from the Hampshire border, we are often told that it will be the economic case that decides whether the A303 is improved,  rather than providing yet more roads/extra carriageways  in urban areas.  Somerset Council are pretty much on the ball and have made an excellent financial case for improving the A303/A358/A30 corridor.  Wiltshire Council seem to be riding very much on their coat tails - or worse.  Their level of engagement and activity has been described to me in very graphic terms:  "Thumbs up bums - brains in neutral!"  Certainly, trying to get a response from those with a transport brief on the Council is nigh on impossible - Wiltshire Council - where people mutter.

Perhaps Mother Nature has done us a major service by pointing out the real economic issues involved here.  From Stonehenge westwards along the whole of the A303/A358/A30 corridor, tourism is the major industry - and to take advantage of tourism, there is one over-riding priority - to get the tourists to the places they want to visit.  No means of the tourist getting there, no tourism.  No tourism, no jobs.  No jobs - no economy.

To support the tourism, goods need to be shipped in.  No rail and no road, no goods shipped in.  No goods, no tourists, no employment, no economy.  And, of course, everything that goes in has to get out again - along the same. limited routes.

For the Wessex region, it really is that simple - the transport infrastructure is its life blood - and with so few alternatives, it really is a unique situation that must be addressed as such.  Perhaps even Wiltshire Council can be encouraged to de-digitate and get on with it!

Highways Agency Lose the A303 !

We held another STAG War Council this morning, over at Stagman Towers in Shrewton.

 A very lively meeting with lots of ground covered and an abundance of ideas and enthusiasm for taking things forward. Most importantly, a lot of pragmatic ideas for engagement with the broader stakeholder community and for improving the local situation in the short, medium and longer term.

Some interesting things planned over the forthcoming months and at least one "event" that should gain some Press coverage - and if we play our cards right - coverage from some interesting quarters.  

Imagine our surprise to discover that the Highways Agency have, seemingly, lost the A303 at Amesbury.  Not forgotten about it, or even just mislaid it.  They appear to have lost it entirely:

Lost the A303, that is.